Writer; Fatima Baloch
Pakistan is currently engaged on multiple fronts, facing significant internal and external challenges. The Pakistan Army continues to confront persistent insurgencies in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK). Following the vote of no confidence against the PTI government, led by Imran Khan, the Army has also experienced a notable decline in popularity in Punjab a province where it has historically enjoyed strong public support, particularly under the anti-India narrative.
However, the Pakistan Army strategically leveraged the Pehlgam attack in Indian-administered Kashmir and the Indo-Pakistan war of May 2025 to partially restore its diminished public standing. These events helped redirect national attention away from the daily ambushes and mounting casualties in KPK and Balochistan.
In KPK, the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) continues its campaign to overthrow the government and establish an Islamic, Sharia-based state. Meanwhile, in Balochistan, secular and moderate nationalist Baloch freedom fighters are engaged in an armed struggle for independence.
Despite certain tactical missteps such as India’s public warning to Pakistan about impending strikes on terrorist camps, and political constraints that forced the Indian Army to avoid preemptive strikes on Pakistani military assets, India still achieved its core military objectives. Though several Indian jets were lost due to Pakistan’s prepared defenses, the campaign delivered clear strategic gains.
India formally withdrew from the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) and launched targeted military strikes on several Pakistani cities, destroying terrorist infrastructure, airfields, and jet hangars, and inflicting significant casualties. While these operations have been paused, they remain incomplete and may resume in response to future terrorist attacks keeping the Pakistan military in a constant state of alert.
Furthermore, India officially designated the Pakistan Army as an active participant in proxy warfare and warned that any future terrorist attack would be considered an act of war potentially triggering the continuation of Operation Sindoor.
Although India’s military campaign brought relative calm to the Kashmir region, Pakistan remains embroiled in low-intensity conflict and guerrilla warfare in Balochistan and KPK.
Strategically, Pakistan has emerged from the conflict with no tangible gains. With the IWT invalidated, Pakistan has lost a critical lifeline for water resources. The looming threat of renewed Indian military operations has also deterred future cross-border terrorism.
Prior to the escalation, on April 25, 2025, Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari warned that “blood will flow if India stops river water.” Now, with India having effectively halted river flows and nullified the treaty, the same minister has resorted to threats of military retaliation and the occupation of Kashmir statements that reflect both strategic desperation and diplomatic frustration. He is also acutely aware that the nullification of the IWT would devastate Sindh’s agriculture, as the Pakistan Army continues constructing canals in Punjab. It is widely perceived that the Army would not risk a full-scale war against India for Sindh’s sake but would do so to protect Punjab’s interests.
In conclusion, Pakistan stands at a critical crossroads with limited options. Facing internal insurgencies, a loss of strategic leverage over Kashmir and water resources, and declining public support, Pakistan must choose between two paths:
Facing long-term strategic isolation and internal collapse driven by economic strain, insurgency, and a loss of public confidence.
Pursuing a decisive military conflict in hopes of negotiating a new international agreement to reinstate the IWT, secure water resources, project national strength, and divert domestic attention from unrest in KPK and Balochistan; or
Facing long-term strategic isolation and internal collapse driven by economic strain, insurgency, and a loss of public confidence.
